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Choppy Trade Overnight
11/6/2009
Overnight markets finished with small losses after a choppy session. Volume was low and the trading ranges were not very big. US unemployment was out this morning above 10%. The highest levels since 1983. Outside markets have not taken nicely to the report and this may spill into the grains.
The forecast for most of the Midwest is little changed this morning. The rains that were supposed to come through on Sunday have been pushed back to Monday.
The markets came under some pressure yesterday as we are starting to see signs of harvest pressure. Soybean and corn harvest progress are expected to show big jumps on Monday’s weekly report.
Estimates are out for Tuesday’s crop production report. The trade is looking for an average corn yield of 163.7 and ending stocks at 1.65 billion bu. Bean yield is expected to be 42.7 and ending stocks at 235 million bu. These yield estimates are below the recent private estimates that we have seen. Based off the yield reports we have been seeing, we think the report will come in above estimates.
Wet crops and wet fields continue to cause problems, but yields are still big.
Look for the last trading day of the week to start off softer. Outside markets are all lower after a disappointing unemployment number came out this morning. Crude is down 1.33, gold up $3, dow futures down 70, and the US$ up 15. The grains should be down on the open and then we will see if the funds want to come in and support their positions. Opening calls are corn down 1-2, beans down 1-2, wheat mixed.
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