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Harvest Stand-Still Keeps Basis Levels Mostly Steady
10/28/2009
This past week proved to be another challenge for farmers trying to harvest their crops. The latest USDA numbers show limited harvest progress, with corn standing at only 20% cut versus a normal pace of 58% and soybeans at 44% versus 80% at this time of year.
In the cash market, basis levels for corn and soybeans were largely unchanged for the week as both crops showed less than a half-cent change on average across the U.S.
In the corn market, most of the weakness was in the Ohio and Indiana region and the Delta region. Areas of the Western Cornbelt had stronger basis as harvest delays have kept end-users bidding up basis. On average across all ethanol plants, they pushed corn basis higher by 1.5 cents a bushel over the past week. However, in SD & NE it was not unusual to see +10-cent basis improvements at some ethanol plants.
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For soybeans, harvest progress is doing slightly better than corn, which is putting some light pressure on cash basis levels. Ohio saw a weaker basis as their harvest total stands at 75% vs 78% normal.
The chance for rain continues to be in most weather models as moisture moves from West to East over the next couple of days. Harvest lags should continue and as the harvest gets drawn out over time, it seems less likely we will see a sharp decline in grain basis levels.
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