Tuesday, November 10, 2009 3:54 AM by: Anonymous
NY commish of Ag
Monday, November 09, 2009 10:29 PM by: annon
Mike R I think the vengence Angel is going to deliver a message soon. And big milk is going to get very uneasy and I think you will see the results.
Monday, November 09, 2009 10:20 PM by: red nec dairy guy
I dont know who smilin Pat is but that last line sure closed up the blogs for a while. I wonder why?
Friday, November 06, 2009 1:56 AM by: mad yankee
You think Smilin Pat is gonna actually do something for farmers he's nothin but a farm bureau flunky. He's been trained to not listen since he got out of college.
Thursday, November 05, 2009 10:40 PM by: Big Time
Sorry Mike. I am trying to understand you but your English is not so good. Maybe you live too close to those French talking Canadians. I still think you are a great guy so try again so I can understand you!
Thursday, November 05, 2009 8:31 PM by: Mike Reed
Hi all, has anyone heard how the processor probes are coming Here in New York a group of farmers requested the states atty genral to in vestigate he turned the imformation over to the states ag comis and he droped it to hot to handel
Thursday, November 05, 2009 5:21 PM by: Mike Reed
Hi all, has anyone heard how the processor probes are coming Here in New York a group of farmers requested the states atty genral to in vestigate he turned the imformation over to the states ag comis and he droped it to hot to handel
Thursday, November 05, 2009 6:32 AM by: JR Burdck
know thr most agrevatng thng for me is that my hauling is 85 cents. I have thought about switching but a new coop also has issues. also why does it take 25 dollars to process an milk assignment? JR
Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:22 PM by: PA Dairymen
Funny how that happens, isn't it? Our milk checks have been nickel and dimed so bad, there's nothing left. I bet if all the deductions were taken off, most of us could have made it through this downturn much easier.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009 8:53 PM by: Mike Reed
Hi all most of you already know that our pay price is based off of the losest possible value they can find for milk Right, then they deduct another 3.5% off of thatfor something I havnt found out yet
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 8:29 PM by: PA Dairymen
I was just curious at to how they got that specific number, burned a lot of money if you include farm land values, cow prices, feed prices, etc. The price of hay is way down compared to last year, which is good if your a buyer, not if your a seller. I guess we just keep going and hope for a better tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 2:20 PM by: millrun
When most refer to these #'s it is milk price/feed cost equivalents. No,a lot of your equity that you burned comes from borrowing actual cash against your equity. The feed cost for some farmers was astronomical this past year.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 2:01 PM by: PA Dairymen
When they say $100 loss per cow per month, are they including loss of equity, the falling value of all of our assets, like cow prices? Or does that $100/cow/mth just mean the extra money loaned to keep a farm operating? Because otherwise, its not $100/cow/mth, its much, much larger.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 1:44 PM by: PA Dairymen
Yea. I think I can get rid of DDG from my ration and be okay. That'll make life a little harder on the ethanol plants. DDG was a relatively small portion of our ration anyhow, probably because most ethanol plants are west from me. I think for October I might get $14 for my milk, which would be nice. Once all of the harvest costs are gone things will be a little better until next spring.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 1:39 PM by: PA Dairymen
Millrun- I wasn't saying the crash was over, I just was in disbelief someone else was.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 12:53 PM by: tc
there are binders out there.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 12:44 PM by: millrun
YIKES!!! So how do I protect myself from this mess....besides not feeding it?[We buy proteins thru feed mills].
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 12:34 PM by: tc
we dumped milk for 8 days from ddg's 3 years ago. the process multiplies the toxin level of corn by 3 times. the side effects were worse than the milk dumping.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 10:35 AM by: red nec dairy guy
Hey, Im just trying to be an optimistic person base on info I been hearin other producers say. Its the prices to come that I am looking forward to ,not the next month price.However I understand the hole im in I thought I might stand on the future to fill it back up.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 9:39 AM by: millrun
Please, PA Dairymen, don't think for a minute I think the slump is over! I was buying into RED's joy! Most surviving dairies will literally have to buy all their cows back...$100/month loss/cow for the past 15 months. We will do that first before a bank will let you expand.We're not out of the woods, but at least the trees are growing slower. If your area of the country has bad feed, drought, wet, a hot summer, a cold summer, bugs, hail, tornadoes, or literally had your water cut off, the timing will be different. To me, it seems like the disaster followed the jet-stream...west to east. So maybe RED lives west of PA., he's been under duress longer, and 13.20 IS a RELIEF! And sir, if your DG's info is correct, it's a little hard on my innards. Better go eat another yogurt.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 9:33 AM by: JR Burdick
Well millrun and PA out here in Iowa they are saying out od one side of thier mouth that they can use it cause The heat and alcohol kill it. Out of the other side of thier mouth they are saying they can't buy this stuff cause it kills all the good bugs actually making the E. I called my field person about this and they said doon't worry if the concentrations get high enough in the milk we can tell and then take action! DAH that means then you can dump all your milk! We are still feeding them just a little less than we used to.
topic 2. Yes the crash is over however I am still waitng for the jaws of life to pry my rear out of the wreck so I can asess the damage. ( wife was hopin to collect life insurance but now that we have survived we just got to pay for getting into this wreck. JR
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 8:54 AM by: PA Dairymen
I was told that the distillers grain would have the mold concentrated into it. Basically, the mold will go out of the corn, and directly into the distillers grains. Not sure if its true, just something I heard. Why are we considering NOV the end of the crash, is everyone making money now? How about all that debt you gotta pay back?
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 8:26 AM by: millrun
Want to jump for joy with you RED ,but whose going to retreive my boots stuck in the mud? Suppose Nov. can be called the end of the crash; Are we suppose to believe that'CWT did it'? Do we dairy onward from here believing that there's a hungry world out there, and we're going to feed them? Seriously guys, show us a profit and we will produce. After all the moldy, wet, and marginal feed is gone, production will return! Speaking of mold....if they take moldy corn, run it thru an ethanol plant, and I buy the distillers grain, dried, do I have to worry about all the AFLA and MYCO toxins? or are they killed? I'd really like to know.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 6:20 AM by: red nec dairy guy
Jump for joy! I believe when the next milk production reports come out the reality of feed price meets milk price and weather with more culling than expected will bring a welcome increase in milk price that will be significant.Pray for positive outcomes.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 6:13 AM by: Anonymous
Print more money and bail out corporate America. Its the best ponzi scheme ever invented,Taking money from people who have not even been born yet. In the mean time farmers and factory workers loose their lifes work. Way to go America , keep it up and it wont last much longer.
Monday, November 02, 2009 9:07 PM by: JR Burdick
Got 13.20 base for my milk. My wife is a little happier and my banker is happy I am not cash cropping as those guys are losing thier shirts! HA HA E plants won't take some of this moldy corn and some of the dairy guys are not able to feed some of this crap coming in out of thier fields. Saw today in a local store milk was 3.15 a gallon. Whats up with that. And Mike your right I might be crazy!!! JR
Monday, November 02, 2009 8:15 PM by: virtualmilkman
PA -- Not that nobody wants to farm or own yours, as evidenced only 168 out of 60,000 farmers decided to quit farming at least temporarily. The problem is because of expectations of higher cow prices few want to sell at these low prices when compared to the recent past. Probably more importantly the deflationary forces in dairy will be lingering as those 59K farmers who have chosen to farm will not have money to buy cows and banks are unwilling to lend for cow/farm purchases. Cow prices will stay low till farmers have money in the bank again. The good news is people are still eating beef and the packers have money for cows.
Monday, November 02, 2009 7:42 PM by: PA Dairymen
I was told CWT had enough money to take 70,000 cows, but didn't get the bids. They got 168 bids, 154 accepted, probably some dropped out as they looked at the futures and some economists predicting $20+ milk by next fall. I understand that they may have paid too much for some of the cows, not all of them certainly, but even if that had an inflationary effect on cow prices, why are cow prices so low still now, even as futures look brighter? So I'm not sure I totally follow the 'inflation effect' on cow prices from CWT. If it does exist, at least it's one less asset of mine that is losing value. I think my net worth has eroded enough from low milk prices, equipment, land, etc all falling - no one wants a dairy farm to buy now.
Monday, November 02, 2009 3:30 PM by: virtualmilkman
Sure they could have seemed somewhat inept if they didn't take enough cows. What is worse, failing to take enough cows and having to let economic forces take charge or lying about not overpaying for cows then losing trust in the program? To that effect I don't blame the producers heck bid what you want, there should be frugality on the management end sort of like the way most farms have to be. ------------If you continue to pay more than things are worth they will continue to be worth more than they should until you go broke. Applies to houses and stocks only, not cows right?????? (Isn't CWT out of money till next year at this time?) Just think about it.
Monday, November 02, 2009 2:42 PM by: Dale W Covert
Mike, It helps
Monday, November 02, 2009 1:33 PM by: Mike Reed
Hi all, I think we need too replace it with a system that doesnt require killing 300,000 cows in oder to make a small difference in our milk check. Lets face it if we had a Quota we could have made adjustments in production almost instindly and those changes could of have been made with out killing those cows and disrupting the beef markets and costing our fellow tax payer a billion bucks on MILC payments and dissater money Put what do I know so lets keep riding this roller coaster over and over again sooner or later somone will finnaly figure out that it cost money to make milk wether you losing farm equity or taking out loans to float the monthly bills feed fuel elec maintence seed vet and heired help O and insurance and morage I must be nuts to be in a bussiness like this
Monday, November 02, 2009 11:22 AM by: Big Time
I would have to agree with PA dairyman. CWT had to kill all of those cows or we would all be fed up with CWT. But a year of terrible prices, they could not come up with some new idea? Time to get rid of the bums running the program. I am thankful that they did keep the cow prices up so the banker is happy too. You know for like borrowing money, because cash flow is a problem.
Monday, November 02, 2009 10:13 AM by: Anonymous
11:42 GOOD, but don't spend it all in one place.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 11:42 PM by: Anonymous
i made money today
Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:49 PM by: millrun
Oh no. Here it is Sunday; We shouldn't be saying things like New Zealand and Fonterra. Shame on you PA. dairymen! Swear words! But that adds to the equation; NMPF is controlled by CHEESE people. NFDM to them is a by-product not worthy of their time. So instead of selling powder ourselves, most all the co-ops in the U.S. formed Dairy America-it sells NFDM, about 75% of the U.S.'s supply. And guess who is a stockholder in DA.--besides DFA. LOL. Calif. Dairies, FONTERRA! As long as New Zealand has powder to sell, they force our guys to sell NFDM in the USA, often at fire-sale prices. If NMPF wants to earn their salt, START SELLING OVERSEAS OURSELVES!! [I think I heard DFA pulled out of Dairy America---they are going start in ingredients division]. That's a good start. Beats supplying the ammo for their guns to shoot back at us. Do we really look that stupid? Yes, but I really think it's apathy in our industries leadership. It's time to lead, not to be dragged around by the competition.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:21 PM by: PA Dairymen
You are probably right, they paid too much for the cows. However, I wonder what the reaction would have been had they NOT accepted those cows and only removed 50,000 cows instead of 100,000 cows in the first 2009 herd retirement - many would have called CWT ineffective because 50,000 cows would not have enough to affect milk price and supply. So it goes both ways. CWT did cap the bills as a response to what you just said about cow prices. I'm not sure what CWT should have done in that situation - pay too much for the cows, or only remove a portion of the cows that put in a bid and face criticism over effectiveness. What would have been nice was that those high bids never existed, and people had put in reasonable prices for their cows.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 8:55 PM by: virtualmilkman
PA. The CWT up till spring 2009 paid top dolllar for herds generally resulting in the farmer receiving top cow prices for the whole herd bottom cows and all. This april they said they would not pay more than cows were worth and in my area they did royally. The lie of paying more than the cows were worth in the market sometimes double the market price of 1100 at the time also lost them credibility. Because they always paid a premium they became the preferred buyer of herds and drove up the price of herds higher than what the competition would pay. I guess those are two seporate issues but that is what I have witnessed
Sunday, November 01, 2009 8:40 PM by: virtualmilkman
Sorry hit refresh and reposted
Sunday, November 01, 2009 8:36 PM by: virtualmilkman
PA dairy you act like you have family over at Nmpf. It is more than fair for us their employers to criticize them for not being more PRoactive in recognizing that makes and the flawed pricing system that shifts all risk to producers is at the heart of this problem. Moreover if they did figure it out sooner we should be more pissed they remained silent about it till summer.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 7:49 PM by: PA Dairymen
I forgot to mention, Kraft and Deans, etc. are all our enemies too. I believe they manipulate the market more so than any MILC payment could ever do. We have a lot of enemies, NMPF is not our best friend or worst enemy, but we need to work with them and get them on track with us with changing this pricing system.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 7:39 PM by: PA Dairymen
Half the promotion money on imports is better than 0 which is what it was, should be the full 15 cents, but I guess you have to start somewhere? My guys, Specter and Casey, made a bill that all dairymen would love, but would never pass in our Congress. I'd love to be paid COP, and so would the rest of ag. but its not realistic. Supply management is something I support, but I don't think has a good chance of passing either, a better chance though than a market that pays COP. If I were to pick an enemy millrun, it would be New Zealand because we have to compete with them globally for exports, and our govt. for not supporting agriculture, and for only passing band-aids (like MILC and this 350 mill package) and not looking at long-term fixes. They just want cheap food for the voters. Virtualmilkman - explain to me why CWT has inflated cow prices, because we just culled 200,000+ cows and the cow price is still in the tank. You may be right, but I would like to hear why you believe that, I'm not saying your wrong.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 6:38 PM by: virtualmilkman
PA --I will give credit to NMPF when it is due perhaps how they pushed to have half the check off charged on imports, or how they remained silent when senator Spector and Casey your guys tried to help us in April. I will not give anyone credit for getting a subsidy that distorts the market and extends the bleed (milc). I also will not give credit to them for the effects of cwt. While good at reducing supply it has been inflationary to cow prices and enabled many to expand their leveraged operations because they had more cow equity. They should have been more responsible with our money and not overpaid for cows. this recklessness with funds reduced the positive impacts that they could have had, by raising cow prices and farmers expectations.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 5:26 PM by: millrun
Hang on everybody, Pa Dairymen has good points; but if these[NMPF] are our friends, what does an enemy look like? After all the buyouts are over, and the word profitable is used again, the question that needs an answer is...WHO IS GOING TO PRICE OUR MILK? and how? The areas of the country that I know of that are outside Federal orders still use them indirectly. The issue is as sticky as bottom ground, but our livelihoods depend on these calculations, even when they're skewed. Whose going to cast the first stone?
Sunday, November 01, 2009 3:35 PM by: PA Dairymen
Not to be rude, but I don't really see anyone else that can do anything for us. If you are going to change our milk pricing system, you must go to Washington to get it done. Who else is in Washington everyday, our lobbyists, NMPF. I know I can't make the trip, I am too busy on the farm. I know some of us will go to D.C. to the hearings to voice our outrage against the system- which is good, but we aren't there all the time, and we definitely aren't there when the bills get wrote and the deals get made. I will say this again, I think NMPF waited way too long to fix this problem, and I have wrote emails to Chris Galen - NMPF spokesman, complaining about that. But I will say short-term, NMPF has been helpful in securing funding for us, such as MILC, and aid packages. They need to be more helpful long-term, I don't want bailed out, I just want to be sustainable with a fair pricing system.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 3:07 PM by: Anonymous
PA dairyman, you still sound too much like you're groveling at the feet of the NMPF.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 2:15 PM by: PA Dairymen
Oh and I agree our co-ops do not and have not represented their member's interests for quite some time. I have no 'family' or any interest in NMPF at all, I just know they are our only lobbyist group in Washington and when we want things, it almost always has to go through them, otherwise it doesn't happen. So I feel that when I get my MILC check, which isn't anywhere near enough, I have to give them some credit for that - they are responsible for getting us that money. I know my dairy would have failed this year without MILC. There's no way I could handle getting less revenue into the farm. I have to give them credit for adding the feed adjuster to MILC. I have to give them credit for forming a group that's stated goal is to reduce supply to support milk prices and dairy farmers- CWT. I agree with all of that NMPF waited too long to try to fix our milk pricing system. I agree that forming a committee is just a waste of time. As I said before, they are to blame for that. But give some credit where credit is due. Virtualmilkman - if you read my previous posts, I said they should have been more proactive in fixing our flawed milk pricing system. Here's my quote: "4) I do believe NMPF needs to get on board on reforming the milk price system. They waited too long to start pushing for price reform, and they did piss me off on that front. But any change in milk pricing now isn't really going to solve this current crisis, just prevent the next crisis."
Sunday, November 01, 2009 2:07 PM by: PA Dairymen
You misinterpreted my post. I said NMPF was to blame for some things, but they are not the only one to blame.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 1:08 PM by: Anonymous
I also agree with millrun and virtualmilkman. Co-ops and NMPF have had goody-boys clubs for much too long. There needs to be a complete overhaul, term limits and NOT hand picked board members by ceo's. I too was thinking that PA Dairyman has family over at NMPF.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 12:31 PM by: Anonymous
i also believe that there is alot of back slapping between the ceo of our coop and proccessers.i dont see where they have done anything to help the members to get a higher price and we are the ones who pay these people.they need to be reminded just who the hell they work for.i say fire all of these heads and bring in new people
Sunday, November 01, 2009 12:13 PM by: Anonymous
How about using our advertising check off dollars to educate the consumers that buying the cheapest store brand is gonna get them the most bang for their buck? I have several relatives and friends that work at Saputo. They have over 100 different labels going through their plant. Same cheese, different label. Got it?
Sunday, November 01, 2009 12:11 PM by: red nec dairy guy
sorry for the spelling folks I went to fast,cause I got a little MAD on.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 12:02 PM by: red nec dairy guy
I agree with Millrun and Virtualmikman. However I know there ar others to blame as well.We cold start with the most complicated milk price structure in the world.Mix in a little block voting. add some collusion, put in a few crooks, blend with inmports and dairy substitutes ,add expansion articles by dairy magazines, shake on assumptions that wile dairyproducers are at home taking care of business that they are being taken of by their co-op NMPF and other farm groups.Now add to this the WTO orders a fallen finance system a stockmarket failure and you get the hellashish mess were in Now. It doesnt matter why were in it.However we bettnot assume that our caretakers at nmpf and others will see to it we are taken care of. Sometimes you got to kick a little on your own. Let see that heads roll after this one. Im tired of all the reasons my product has to be sold so cheap while everthing i buy has to be so high.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 11:00 AM by: millrun
Mornin' PA dairymen;I agree that NMPF can't be blamed for everything. But how they reacted to the crash...yes. It was a crash, too. Just like now, most mid-west and eastern producers didn't want to see how bad dairy economics in the southeast and west were for the past 15 months. But the ugly did show up. Even if your co-op is doing wonderfully, your elected board hired the management and they can fire them too! Whom they delegate to sit on NMPF board is your directors vote. I'm thinking it's become another 'goody-boys' club; when the feces hit the fan this year, their ho-hum 'we'll appoint a committee' reaction was short-sided at best. I think it's time to clean the old hay out of the bottom of the mow, before resorting to building a new structure. It's YOUR CO-OP BOARD, deal with them!
Sunday, November 01, 2009 9:50 AM by: virtualmilkman
PA dairy you act like you have family over at Nmpf. It is more than fair for us their employers to criticize them for not being more PRoactive in recognizing that makes and the flawed pricing system that shifts all risk to producers is at the heart of this problem. Moreover if they did figure it out sooner we should be more pissed they remained silent about it till summer.
Sunday, November 01, 2009 8:24 AM by: PA Dairymen
Fluid milk demand is up when people eat at home, which we are seeing, good demand for Class I. However, a lot of cheese is eaten out, restaurants. Hence, the stockpiles of cheese. Exports sank, and now we have/had a stockpile of powder. The world grows in population, but how many of those are poor people, not getting food they need? We need better food aid deliveries to poor countries. I think NMPF has some skin in the game, but you can't blame them for everything. Everyone keeps looking for one place to point the blame, I think it is everyone's fault including our own.
Saturday, October 31, 2009 10:40 PM by: red nec dairy guy
Demand for food in this world has never been higher. My understanding is that every three weeks world population increases a net near four million people. I just cant see why we are suffering through this low milk price unless our markets are really being manipulated. I realize exports are down, but I believe that products still have to be sold closer to the true value they hold. As the recession has led to fewer people eating out I am sure as people eat at home more milk consumption is up. I once ask a milk company representative why they could not pay producers more for milk, the response was this; There is just no money in the marketplace to do so. So if you get a slice of cheese added to a burger and its 35 cents per3/4 oz slice that is $7.47 per lb or about $75.00 per hundred for milk. I could give many more examples of this but it is proof that there is money available in the marketplace. NMPF do your job, quit working to put us out of business, plenty of people will do that on their own. SHOW US THE MONEY. Do that so we can catch up and get this ag economy rolling again! Get a bucket of rainwater for me too or mud we all have plenty of that also.
Saturday, October 31, 2009 9:13 PM by: PA Dairymen
My thought is a few things: 1) NMPF is not going to be able to do anything about a world wide recession resulting in our exports sinking, causing a glut of milk and our poor prices. 2) NMPF's program to reduce supply- CWT- did a herd retirement at the end of 2008, maybe more should have submitted reasonable bids instead of going into 2009? Also, CWT had yet to acquire a 2 year contract of 67% of the milk supply - which they believed was necessary to make CWT effective. So the big herd retirements of 2009 were not going to happen until after they had that contract. 3) Some of this milk price crisis is our fault - we expanded - added over 200,000 cows from 2006. We did it in response to the export boom, but maybe if we wouldn't have gotten so greedy and expanded so fast, we would have not seen such a severe, long downturn this time. 4) I do believe NMPF needs to get on board on reforming the milk price system. They waited too long to start pushing for price reform, and they did piss me off on that front. But any change in milk pricing now isn't really going to solve this current crisis, just prevent the next crisis. I think overall NMPF has done some good for us, they formed CWT to help with our prices, regardless of your opinion of the program, they helped form MILC and the feed adjuster that goes along with it, and they played a major role in getting aid to dairy farmers - such as this 350 million package. Now, none of it was enough to prevent farmers from going out of business, but we, as farmers, will never get everything we want. Face it, our govt. wants cheap food.
Saturday, October 31, 2009 8:42 PM by: TroyL
J Nye has a point abouit NMPF. Where were they last nov when prices were dropping? They did take their time 'responding'. They are not all bad just the leadership is due for a change it seems. Kinda like a senator. They foght for the people for awhile then start fighting for themselves sooner or later. Like the "emg milk price panel" you know the one they formed in July after 8 months of below BE prices. The panel is the EXACT same guys as the CWT board. Way to get fresh ideas and think out of the box. Get the guys whom drug their feet to puff up their feathers and talk some more. Just frustrating to not knwo if NMProcessorsF is for us or the plants. Until this spring when I was corrected by Galen I thought they were primarily plant driven. Galen says not though?! Prove it please. Why in the 60s did americans drink 45 gal/person and have less then 5% obesse. an dnow 8g/person and 30% obesse? (search Trent Loo's blog for the full story) What did NMPF do? Frustrating......
Saturday, October 31, 2009 1:03 PM by: Anonymous
The latest figures I've heard is that the dairy aid will amount to 15-20 cents/cwt. Hallelujah, we're gonna get our advertising money back this year! Maybe we should have a referendum on the check offs, not blockvoted, where if the price goes in the crapper, we get our ad money back!
Saturday, October 31, 2009 11:52 AM by: millrun
Muddy mornin' everyone; Nov 1st was the 'official' done farming date in many dairy states....normally. Weather turned a trick on us. By the way, send your kids out tonite as a dairy farmer; what could be more scary than that! Make sure they take a calf on a halter with them, it could use all that chocolate for energy too![just trying to make it another day]. My mental meanderings...Take our Cwt dime, increase it a nickel to 15 cents. GET IT MANDITORY ON ALL MILK...188 billion #s. Collect but don't spend for 3 YEARS. now you have a kitty with 800 to 900 Million dollars and growing! Have it controlled by a CZAR type group. How low do you think your prices would go when there is a real threat that ALL MILK could be bought and DISAPPEAR OVERNITE? Not very, I would think. The money could be called marketing funds...I don't care. Turning 'change' into a BIG STICK makes me feel empowered. and no, your NMPF board won't run it. [Yeah, I've got H2O on the brain]. comments WANTED!
Saturday, October 31, 2009 5:12 AM by: Anonymous
Do the bred heifers in the CWT buyout need to be preg tested before the farm gets notified that they are accepted or can they wait until after they are notified?
Friday, October 30, 2009 11:05 PM by: Big Time
I agree with almost everyone's points. There is a lot of change needed and we need to start getting our coops back to be for the dairymen. There are signs right now that our milk supply is about to get very short. The world is all of a sudden getting short. The coops are asking for more milk but they did nothing for us in these bad times. I say now is the time to get rid of all the bums running our industry. We have the answers but they don't care. They hand out millions of dollars of bonus to each other for making money for the coop, yet they pay us little. My coop handed 13 million out in bonuses this year to the employees. At least someone is getting rich on our milk!
Friday, October 30, 2009 4:41 PM by: Smallest Dairy Farmer in ND
Lots of good stuff going here. I agree with whomever pointed out that CWT culls 120 lb cows, which of course would be the last one I would cull. At least their goal is to increase milk prices and to the other comments, it seems to me that MILC, short fixs like the proposed 350,000 million are always just a way to keep from a real solution. Lots of stuff is lowering production, but I for one appreciate what CWT does. We might want some of that to go to consumer awareness, since everyone here knows what is really going on. Here my production is the worst in years. The cows are just as good and the same ones in many cases. First cut Alfalfa that grew for 2 extra weeks waiting for it to stop pouring rain is making sure of that. Concentrate that does not cash flow is further reducing production. Production here is off 3000 lbs per lactation. We really need a upper level house cleaning and do get rid of make allowances, and for my part, I think they should pay to truck the milk that they need to have. I have to pay to truck my hay in that I need, but then again I have to truck my wheat in to the elevator that .......I assume they must need. Go figure.
Friday, October 30, 2009 3:01 PM by: PA Dairymen
I think knocking a few lbs off per cow will happen. My hay crop this year was terrible. I know I don't have enough good feed, and many are in the same boat. Rained nonstop, and some of the hay I made wasn't quite ready to be made, and molded - I figured it was better than letting it get rained on, now I'm not so sure. Corn silage we did well, but I know people who had late planted corn that chopped frosted corn - that never makes great feed. I believe, maybe I am wrong, but this trend is the same throughout much of the Northeast and Midwest. I hope I'm not the only one with not enough good feed!
Friday, October 30, 2009 11:13 AM by: John Nye
Morning people, I did not say that congress solved any problems but they did temporarily increase support price on cheese, and add the 360,000,000 to buy cheese and help out. I dont argue whether any of that was right or good but at least they did something. That is more than can be said for most coops and nmpf. The only thing they have is to sell off herds. CWT was good to begin with but most of the people that want to exit the dairy business have . Now it needs to shift gears and find a way to keep dairymen in business. I do think much of our profesional perdiem collecting and high paid executives at our coops and nmpf need to be removed and replaced by people that understand what needs to be done and arent worried about *#!?)^% politics. We can start by going to Grapevine Texas in November and Calling for Jerry Kozak's head. They spend lots of our money showcasing how they squander our money, but they do not welcome dairy farmer input there.
Friday, October 30, 2009 10:34 AM by: millrun
Sorry I'm so incoherent this morning. The point I didn't make very well was the west that produced the powder that made the cheese this summer was out of milk all summer long. The mid-west was pouring out the milk, thanks to perfect weather. If it were not for the storehouse of western powder made over a year ago being converted to cheese this spring, summer, we could have handled the ideal mid-west summer production without such a trainwreck, pricewise. Now the midwest is dropping, seasonally, the world wants powder again, so there's waaay too little milk. CWT helps, of course, dead cows don't give milk, but not being able to afford feed does a lot more good. Knock 5 pounds a day off of 9 million cows; now thats profitable and doable; with poor feed it may be inevitable.
Friday, October 30, 2009 9:49 AM by: PA Dairymen
But didn't the weird weather, cool summer, allow for more milk, lowering our price not increasing? The current price is considerably above the current price supports now, so I don't feel that is affecting anything. Maybe the market takes a small dip when the price supports expire, but the general trend is up or at least to maintain the $1.40-$1.50/lb cheese range.
Friday, October 30, 2009 9:39 AM by: millrun
Morning; there are a couple things PA. that are making a price difference. One is the gov't raised the support floor temporarily; that is due to expire Sunday, if I remember correctly. Two is the weird weather. Even tho the west would be missing 200 million #'s a month, the midwest made up for it. The stockpile of NFDM has been turned into a stockpile of cheese,which is one of the two wildcards out there.[thanks to the make allow T; he other is our dollar. It's year to date valuation to New Zealand is 22%. That means our powder is at least 25 cents a pound cheaper to the world than a year ago, and below NZ. So the real price increase is world demand.
Friday, October 30, 2009 9:06 AM by: PA Dairymen
I still want to know what our co-ops and govt. has done for us? Because I haven't seen anything significant. Dairy farmers have had our govt's ear now for awhile - so they came up with a 350 million package, instead of actual reform, just to make it look as if they cared, and maybe keep us going just a little longer. They can throw all the money they want at the problem, but that doesn't solve the crisis - we need an overall of dairy pricing. I don't think NMPF is lazy, I just don't think they are representing the views of many dairy farmers and pushing their own view instead. I do think the only reason why milk prices are up some, close to breakeven by this winter, is because of CWT and culling. I think the market responded to less cows and less milk. I don't see any other reason for the price increase.
Friday, October 30, 2009 3:29 AM by: virtualmilkman
It isn't that nmpf is bad. The problem is we sent these peple to run it and we don't hold them accountable both board and management. Throw the bums out you say. I say we shouldn't be the lazy bums and should hold them to account. It is our money.
Thursday, October 29, 2009 11:27 PM by: Anonymous
Speaking of PETA, can't believe that group hasn't jumped all over the CWT program!
Thursday, October 29, 2009 11:21 PM by: red nec daiy guy
Millrun your not just kidding the darn senators and congress think they are representing what the dairy people across the country want.Why they are THE National MILk Producers voice .I think the only voice we have is our own and you better be using it with your milk company, your congressmen, your senators, your community,and your federal order market administrators. If you dont tell your side of the story no farm group will. They are too busy planning ameeting telling you how cap and trade or peta is going to destoy your wonderfull proffitable farm.
Thursday, October 29, 2009 11:10 PM by: millrun
MR.Nye,maybe if we made National Milk go away, we could resurrect something new and better, FASTER than trying to teach those old dogs new tricks. The barn has burned and they're still digging out their hoses.
Thursday, October 29, 2009 11:04 PM by: red nec dairy guy
Lets see culling 200000 cows is a little less than 3.9 cows per dairy. Yea thats just playing around.
Thursday, October 29, 2009 11:00 PM by: Anonymous
Agree with John. Anyone who thinks CWT is working needs to look at all the issues and be honest with themselves.
Thursday, October 29, 2009 10:16 PM by: PA Dairymen
Just out of curiousity, what has Congress or other co-ops done faster? I haven't seen anything. Please don't reference the 350 mill package either, that's a joke compared to what we really need.
Thursday, October 29, 2009 10:04 PM by: john nye
I have not commented here in a while but I have been reading. Make no mistake, the last cwt buyout was only for political reasons. There are lots of pissed off people at Jerry Kozak who runs NMPF. In my opinion, rightfully so. Even congress acted faster than nmpf and our coop leaders to do something. There are people who want Jerry gone by annual meeting in November. Good idea I think. John
Thursday, October 29, 2009 8:29 PM by: millrun
JR. Burdick, a possible explanation for your growlley banker....you are one of the shining lights in his Ag/Dairy portfolio. ANY negative discrepancy jeoprodizes his behind. You are carrying his job, and some other questionable loans on your shoulders. If that's true,be proud!
Thursday, October 29, 2009 5:18 PM by: red nec dairy guy
Sometimes help gives us hope. Sometimes hope helps ,keep struggling on people they cant keep us down forever were just too strong!
Thursday, October 29, 2009 2:37 PM by: PA Dairymen
CWT didn't take enough cows to do anything this time, I agree. Make Allowances are a huge problem as well, removing them alone will hope big time. I think CWT would be better if the penality for getting back into dairying was 30% instead of 10% - I know dairies that already started back up and forfeited the 10% penality - that doesn't help the supply problem. I suggest a 30% penality to prevent this problem. Some dairies found that they made money or broke even when they got 90% CWT money and used it to buy cheap young cows and restart dairying all over, even with the lame 10% penality.
Thursday, October 29, 2009 2:37 PM by: PA Dairymen
*help/not hope
Thursday, October 29, 2009 1:34 PM by: TroyL
Thanks for the correction PA d. I read it in WesternDairyBus in a letter to the ed. Must of been old info. I do think last year they said milk pro would grow. Does anyone else think that maybe MILC and CWT have kinda extended the herd reduction? You know guys whom would of quit waiting till next CWT or that MILC check is all they are working with? Not bad programs but could they be improved on and how so?
Thursday, October 29, 2009 1:30 PM by: Jim
Real milkman, thanks for the solution and constructive ideas you put forth. Why guys like you should go out. Helps the gene pool of the rest of us dairymen.
Thursday, October 29, 2009 12:41 PM by: millrun
Seems to me this morning that CWT doesn't work anymore. When you don't get a SHOCK factor from a buy-out, the few cows removed this time didn't amount to 3 big dairies. Besides,we keep eliminating our source of funding. 5 billion #s of milk @ 10 cents a cwt adds down. We are actually giving independant producers and processors more market share. Now you've really put your co-op managers in a bind. I think it's time to take our dime and sell what's produced,[after we get rid of some make allowance], maybe overseas mostly;...the banks will take care of buying out our herds , even if it's here a cow, there a cow to generate cash for the month. If you don't agree, throw a bucket of rainwater at me; seems the one thing most of us can spare.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 11:18 PM by: red nec dairy guy
Who is duffus? Are we not all striving to create a better life for our family and our community through one of the most noble proffessions on earth? We cant help it if the greed and deceit of others have driven us to the lonliness and secluded pages of the web to voice our frustrations and bouts with an annoying reality. We have lost control of our ability to produce income at the level that is sustainable and acceptable. Shame on me If I have belittled any of you my brothers and sisters in agriculture. I love you all and hope our true greatness will shine and change our existance into success over those that would prefer to see their gain through our demise.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 10:54 PM by: PA Dairymen
World Ag and Dairy Outlook * Typo Here's the report. http://dairywebmall.com/dbcpress/?p=4611
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 10:35 PM by: PA Dairymen
"The expected smaller cow herd trumps the production per cow increase, resulting in the second year-over-year production decline." The prospects for the rest of 2009 and 2010 are for cow numbers to continue to decline and for production per animal to continue increasing. "In 2010, the U.S. dairy herd is expected to average below 9 million head for the year, the lowest annual average since 2004." Exact USDA World and Ag Outlook words.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 10:30 PM by: PA Dairymen
Troy Troy Troy - This is the October WASDE report - 2010 milk production estimated at 187.2 bill, 2009 estimated at 188.9 bill. That's a drop in production, not robust growth. They also raised milk prices for next year, probably citing an improved economy resulting in higher export demand. I don't know where you are getting your numbers, here's where I got mine - http://www.dairyline.com/news-main.htm. Many economists are predicting cow numbers to fall in 2010 to 8.9-9.0 million, right now they stand at 9.1 million.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 10:23 PM by: Real milkman
TroyL- Why would you want to rent a empty dairy? To pay rent and no income since it is empty. I am glad at least your banker has a brain, also why are you coping virtualmilkman and kissing his butt at the same time? You are a odd duck!
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 10:04 PM by: TroyL
virtual & Red, stepping back from the 'edge' into the inferno of the house on fire may hurt more then the fall to the lawn. Amen though virtu-duffus on the pooling thing.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 10:01 PM by: TroyL
If anyone has time, or patience. Look at USDA World Ag & Dairy Outlook report. They say to expect robust milk growth and herd #s climbing. If you read NASS wire reports they are reporting plants are scrabling to keep full.( Here in the NW plants are ALL running 80% or less for 9 months FYI) DFA in CA, who pays into cwt, has been asking their herds to increase milk production for months now! CDI doing the same from my sources. Why? Make allowances people. The plants dont lose. there is no skin in the game for them. I am not saying "evil Dean Foods" but our own Co-ops are kicking us in the crotch and telling us they are trying to fix this mess. Crazy. Until the USDA does HARD COUNTS of cows and product in and out of plants we will never accomplish anything. Dont you wonder why you need a signed paper about your cow count for MILC and the NASS will call the next week and ask to "est" how many cows you have on hand apx?? Retarded. Only 5% of plants are surveyed for NASS production with no accounting/fact checking. What do you think plants say? "We're out" or "We're full"? Putting(paying off) dairymen out of bus while letting 200 million pounds of milk equivilent into the county as MPCs is short sighted. Get the counts figured and END make-allowances now. GMP wont be needed since no one can get $ to buy virtualmilkman's cows anyhow. Call your bank and ask if you could get some $ to rent the empty dairy up the road and you got 35% down. They will smile and say,"love you but NO". Just keep praying this won't ruin anymore families and relationships. Godspeed
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 9:46 PM by: red nec dairy guy
Amen to that virtualmilkman and especially the makes!!
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 9:41 PM by: virtualmilkman
Red I can tell you are on the edge so just step back a little the sun will come out tomorrow. I hope we will remember how bad this tastes and ensure that we follow through to change the system namely makes, pooling, and accurate counts of products and prices.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 9:30 PM by: red nec dairy guy
I hope we see a great return for that 200,000 but I think it has been two slow and we will never know, that may have happened with or without CWT. For a more long term fix it should be larger and younger animals.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 9:06 PM by: PA Dairymen
I think supply was outpacing demand, and CWT has now realigned supply and demand, with 5 billion lbs less milk. I don't think culling 200,000+ cows is playing around.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 8:37 PM by: red nec dairy guy
Take 30 cents per hundred for cwt. get 300,000 springing heifers and 200,000 head of milk cows . I will sign that contract and be happy. If yor just going to play around and not be serious then I dont need the program!Young stock will help much more in herd reduction.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 8:26 PM by: Anonymous
virtualmilkman - I agree with you. Herd liquidation is hard on cow numbers but not as hard as CWT - just because CWT removes all cows, while herd liquidation does send some to slaughter but usually less than 30% is slaughtered. So you still have the other 70% going, and those ones are usually the high producers, who add more supply than the low producers.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 7:53 PM by: red nec dairy guy
I guess its just supply and demand ...and a lack of population growth since 1980 I just suppose that it.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 7:46 PM by: chuckie
Right on, red nec! The IDFA wants us to churn out, the beef packers want to keep buying it for whatever they can get away with, the fuel and fertilizer guys want to get us for whatever they can. Whats wrong with this picture?
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 7:39 PM by: red nec dairy guy
Let weigh cows hit .55 to.60 cents per pound and I will bet you will see one of the best cull out rates this country has seen in years. I dont guess we will get to witness that as long as our imports of beef continue to break a record by the big corporate companies. I am so tired of hearing all the reasons I must pay more for my inputs but sell my milk, baby calves, and cull cows for less than what it literaly sold for when Jimmy Carter was president. We are so efficient now, we are competing on a world market,we are kings at production per acre,per cow ect....Wellll efficiency cost money, technology cost. and we seem to be really good at absorbing cost and not passing it on in this free republic we call our home.Damn me for not standing up to corporations while they gut and violate the very reason this country was formed. I hate the tyranny we live with but dont know of a better alternative. I love U.S.A. but I hate to see what is becoming of independent thinkers and workers.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 3:09 PM by: virtualmilkman
PA DAiry ----the reason that none of these herds liquidated is because the lending situation has gone from easy money to expand to banks only lending to support dairies with declining asset values who are hemorrhaging cash. Consolidation of herd is very damaging for national cow numbers in the short run becasue of the added stress of the move, plus the bottom 15% of the herd usually don't even get the chance to move on up. the lending tightness probably will stay that way for a while, in 2009 with none truly profitable bankers have switched from fear of losing customers to other banks to fear of losing their jobs if they mess up. The ironic part is that while they may pull back the reigns and get some security in the short run it is damaging in the long run for "money salesmen" to turn down good customers because they are their future business partners and the only reason they have a job in the first place.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 2:52 PM by: Mike Reed
Sooner or later someone will realize producing milk isnt cheap and the true price of a gallon of isnt even reflected at the supermarket Our milkhauler lost a load aday not a big deal in the sceem of things but what if milk production is down nationaly and stays down a lot of people depend on volume not qaulity I dont think its going to take very long before you see milk haulers going to co-ops and asking for an increase in hualing deducts to cover there increased costs due too lower milk volumes a supply management program would benifit everyone palnts milk haulers and farmers where not the only ones who have to ride the highs and the lows out what would be wrong with a program that cuold bring some stability to dairing
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 2:31 PM by: millrun
PA., I agree with you...Where do these cows come from? My answer... they are PAPER COWS! You can't find their production, and they 'just show up' like a cloudburst. Will Rogers was right....there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. 'Trust me, I'm from the Gov't', has never hurt more. A slight correction in your line of thought...even without a CWT buy-out, almost all bank liquidated herds in Calif. went entirely to slaughter. Feed costs were so high there NOBODY wanted a live animal. Carnage, train-wreck, wipe-out; pick your own word; ugly. aka...Gettysberg West.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 2:00 PM by: PA Dairymen
HAHA. This rain is terrible.... Can hardly stand it. My point is this: CA has only dropped 73,000 cows from previous year due to replacements filling up the barn as culling and CWT increased slaughter. The market is terrible, why has CA only dropped 73,000 cows in an area that has 2 million, with devastating milk prices, and relatively high feed prices. What I am getting at is CWT did what it could with its 0.10 cents. But with this current market, one would think much more than 73,000 cows would be gone. My co-op does a newsletter on economics every week and puts it up on the web. There is chart that shows dairy cow slaughter for the entire year. Dairy cow slaughter was very high at the beginning of 2009, mainly because of poor economics, and somewhat because of the CWT round right at the end of 2008 - but mostly poor economics. Ever since then, culling has returned to normal, except for when CWT culls out thousands of cows. Basically, culling returned back to normal because herds culled out as hard as they could in the beginning. They had nothing left to cull. So culling would have stayed normal if not for CWT. If CWT didn't exist, most of the dairies would be exiting right now through herd liquidation, where most of the cows would have just gone to other herds to be milked instead of slaughtered, as they are in CWT.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 10:16 AM by: JR Burdick
I have a question. Banks I have uerd will keep someone "goin" for wht reson? My banker is ornery all the time if I do one little thing wrong he seems to want to chew me out i hate going n ther. Hoow can someone gt a bank to keep them in business? No I am not broke or backwards to the bank but as I try to think ahead and do a small expansion you would thnk I was asking for his most precious treasure. He is really upset cows arn't cheaper he says with all the dairyman going out cows should be 1000 per head or less instead of 1300-1400. Where are the bankers that pay you to stay in? By the way finished up corn harvest last night. JR
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 10:05 AM by: millrun
Good morning PA. dairymen, I hope your night was better than mine, and the rain you received was 'useful'. I'm assuming your argument re Calif. and CWT is it didn't help much or not enough. Correct me if I'm reading you wrong. What I'm trying to say is Calif. is missing way more milk than ALL of CWT's monies this year could have purchased! And I don't believe for a minute the cow number stats. Now for another question? WHY ONLY 26,000 COWS? Useless, totally useless.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 9:05 AM by: Anonymous
What profitablity? Here in the midwest production is SUPPOSINGLY still strong,however my creamery isn't at full capacity like they were last year at this time not even close. Also the idea that the midwest is able to capitalize on lower input costs I.E. (raising a lot of their own feed) that may all change this fall as 4.00 + $ per Bu. corn input costs + corn that is still 30% moisture or higher (.40 per bu drying costs)as Oct. 27 and operating loans to put the crop in coming due with corn bringing 3.20 or less per bu. well things just might not work out so well.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 8:33 AM by: PA Dairymen
So far CWT has removed 416 million lbs a month. Or 5 billion over the year. 73,000 less cows in the state of CA is a drop in the bucket. Bank are keeping them going, maybe a little too long. If the bank doesn't let them go, then the money just keeps rolling in, and cow numbers never do fall. So basically what you are saying is that if CWT didn't exist CA would actually be plus in cow numbers because they have had a ton of heifers flood in as well.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 9:52 PM by: millrun
Pa dairymen, ifyou and I believe the cow #'s as presented, {I don't}, year to year differentials don't account for removals; replacements have to be factored in. Look at production figures and see what has happened there. Or go see. Take todays buy-out stats, 500 million #'s; that's 40 million #'s a month. Shucks, most processors down there are each missing that much. And please anon's, tell me where you dairy, so the rest of us can join in with the 'profitability ball'!
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 8:42 PM by: PA Dairymen
millrun- California is running 73,000 cows less in Sept 2009 vs. Sept 2008. In a state that has a couple million cows, you would think the reduction in cow numbers would be much more severe than what it is with the current crisis. I can't find the data that shows CWT cull cows by state. But I believe the second herd retirement (75,000 cow) roughly 18,000 cows of those were from CA. So I feel safe to say that roughly 50% of the 73,000 drop in cow numbers in CA is from CWT. I agree with IN DairyFarmer - those cows would have left eventually, but it would have taken longer. Also, many forget this: more low producing cows would have left, and the high producing ones would have stayed without CWT, because CWT culls cows milking 120 lbs and 30 lbs, whereas no dairymen without CWT would ever cull a cow producing 120 lbs. So CWT can remove milk faster by removing higher producing cows. I can cull a cow milking 30 lbs/day, while CWT culls a cow milking 60 lbs/day - they just removed twice the amount of milk in supply, than I did.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 8:40 PM by: JR BUrdick
Whast profitablity would you be refering too? I must have missed something..... again! JR
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 8:36 PM by: Anonymous
Now that milk price has returned to profitable levels, it seems that no one is talking about socialized milk production. Apparently the Holstein Ass'n has gone back to registering and classifying cows.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 8:27 PM by: Anonymous
the problem with cwt is that it has inflated milk cow price to artifically high prices. standard milk herds were selling for $1200 to $1300 when they should have been selling for $700 to $800 based on milk profitability. that makes it harder to expand during these economic times. capitalism isnt much fun when theres fewer opportunities to profit from others misfortune.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 6:29 PM by: In Dairyman
eventually the market corrects itself -- the cows would have gone, with or without CWT. Perhaps CT just made allowed for a quicker -- and more dignified -- market correction.
The only thing I know for certain - after the last 14 months I am no longer burdened with the problems that encumber wealthy individuals.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 3:39 PM by: millrun
PA dairymen, if we add up the amount of cows missing in Calif. the # CWT took would be quite a small %. The fact that dairymen there used CWT doesn't change the economic structure at all. When everyone is in the doldrums,only some can avail CWT. I don't blame them; it even gives them more cash, and maybe some dignity. I really think 10 million dollars/month could be spent better than just slaughter.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 2:38 PM by: PA Dairymen
millrun- "California has reduced it"s cow numbers in that time...the midwest did not. The price/cost squeeze was way worse in the west, and the carnage would have occured with or without CWT."
You are completely ignoring the fact that 75% of cows removed in CWT were from the west, mainly California. So it is very hard to say that California reduced its cows numbers in that time without CWT.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 2:32 PM by: PA Dairymen
I was just trying to make the point that in 2006, we had a bad year, and yet we didn't lose any cows, even though many were losing money. I wasn't comparing 2006 to 2009, just saying that negative returns don't necessarily mean less cows. In the first half of 2006, we added nearly 100,000 cows. The second half of 2006 we lost 25,000 cows, but the year was still +75,000 cows yet we were having a 'downturn year'. That doesn't make sense if you believe that cow numbers fall when profitability is poor. Many in our industry add cows when profitability is low to generate more income to finance more debt and spread more debt over more cows.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 2:13 PM by: virtualmilkman
Agreed millrun--- 2009 was worse than 2006 by the end of march. CWT has been very inflationary for cow/ herd prices. Now that the competition for cows is out of money at least till the end of next year it is scary to think how low cow prices could go if this recover doesn't play out how it is predicted by the futures traders.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 1:56 PM by: millrun
Between PA dairymen and CA-Dman there is a discrepancy; California has reduced it"s cow numbers in that time...the midwest did not. The price/cost squeeze was way worse in the west, and the carnage would have occured with or without CWT. Now that all dairymen are out of money,who knows what the industry will look like after recovery. Please don't compare 2006 to the past 12 months; if Penn. is only that bad now, you haven't a clue. Be grateful.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 1:17 PM by: PA Dairymen
Anon 9:43. I disagree. There is absolutely no way cow numbers would have fallen so fast without CWT. Look at the graphs, even during 2006 cow numbers were flat, when we were in a bad downturn. CWT is the only tool currently that we have to remove production fast and efficiently. Within 1 year, 200,000 less cows. That is amazing, I believe it would have taken easily 2-3 years to do the same without CWT.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 11:45 AM by: CA D-man
The fundamental problem is over production.In CA the make allowance keeps processors profitable even when the dairymen are losing money.If prossesors had to make their profits from the market,they would not let us keep producing milk for the sake of producing milk.They would limit our prodution to what they could sell at a profit. Therfore we wouldn't over supply the market and wouldn't need CWT,MILC or any other welfare to survive.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 11:29 AM by: Big Time
I am thankful that these cows that the CWT killed are not going to other dairies. People, there are dairies looking in buying cheap cows and tring to expand right now. When a dairyman sell out in my area someone else with 10000 cows plus buys them. I don't want this to keep happening. Lets keep the CWT working and try some different things also.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 9:44 AM by: millrun
"Unfortunately those are the numbers I had to work with". What a comfort to know that we take a known....the number of CWT culled cows... and compare them to a GUESS...the assumed number of cows milking in the USA. and call that FACT? People actually get paid for such profundity, while the dairyman gets screwed by the marketplace 'believing' these facts. Lord help us.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 9:43 AM by: Anonymous
I think the answer to the last question is -yes. But - and I am not a strong supporter of the cwt program -- as a 50 yr old plus guy questioning why I am still in this business, I can understand how the program assisted some in transitioning out of dairy. Maybe that is a good thing??
I do know that we are re-thinking a lot of things. A year ago we were shipping 90 lbs per cow - today 65. We have lots of high quality forage on hand and no longer have the cash neccessary to buy concentrates at the level we used to -- so we are back to high forage rations. As I expected, milk production dropped, but vet bills are declining and I expect hoof trimming expense will decline. But will this be the lowest cost formula to produce 100 lbs of milk? we will see - but if others are doing the same - how mnay farms and farmers could we have kept in the business if this change would have occurred 12 months ago?
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 9:21 AM by: Anonymous
The cow numbers changing are a result of dariymen not having money!!!More culling and changes to rations has led to cows leaving early as well as just a need for cash!!
