USFR Weekly Recap - October 3-4, 2009
10/5/2009
THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT
Episode #1886
October 3-4, 2009
John’s Hello: AS THE FIRST FEW HARVEST REPORTS BEGAN TO TRICKLE INTO LOCAL CONVERSATIONS, IT BECAME OBVIOUS THE RELATIVELY COOL, WET SUMMER HAD TWO EFFECTS. THE FIRST WAS EXCELLENT YIELDS. CROPS SAW VERY LITTLE PRESSURE FROM HEAT OR DRYNESS, AND CERTAINLY TOOK ADVANTAGE OF IT. THE SECOND WAS WIDESPREAD GRAIN DAMAGE, ESPECIALLY EAR ROTS AND SOYBEAN MOLDS. THAT'S THE OTHER SIDE OF COOL, WET CONDITIONS. THIS MAY NOT BE OVER, AS LAGGING CROPS WILL STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR SOME TIME TO COME. THE LONGER HARVEST TAKES DUE TO MATURITY DELAYS, THE LARGER THIS PROBLEM BECOMES. PILING BINS FULL OF LOW QUALITY GRAIN IS NOT A REASSURING THOUGHT EITHER. 2009 CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE GROWERS, AND COULD BE THE MEASURE OF OUR PROFESSIONAL ABILITY.
Crop Progress: FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON, THE AG DEPARTMENT'S WEEKLY CROP PROGRESS REPORT IS NOW SHOWING CORN AND SOYBEAN HARVEST RESULTS...AND THEY CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE DELAYS. ILLINOIS AND IOWA GROW ABOUT A THIRD OF THE NATION'S SOYBEANS. HARVEST IS ANYWHERE FROM 15-TO-20 POINTS BEHIND NORMAL. IN MISSISSIPPI, A "HUNDRED YEAR" RAIN EVENT ABOUT A WEEK AGO BROUGHT HARVEST TO A HALT -- THE SOY HARVEST IS 40 POINTS BEHIND. IN TENNESSEE, CORN HARVEST IS ABOUT 60-POINTS BEHIND. NATIONALLY, SIX PERCENT OF THE CORN CROP IS HARVESTED. ONLY 37-PERCENT OF THE CORN IS CONSIDERED MATURE -- THAT'S HALF OF THE NORMAL PACE.
Swine Recovery: HOG PRODUCERS MAY BE SEEING THE FIRST SIGNS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY, ACCORDING TO NOTED AG ECONOMIST CHRIS HURT. THE PURDUE UNIVERSITY ECONOMIST SAYS THE MAGNITUDE OF LOSSES FROM PORK PRODUCTION IS DECLINING. HE WOULD EXPECT PRODUCERS WOULD START SEEING PROFITS RETURN IN THE SPRING. THE MOST RECENT HOGS AND PIGS REPORT FROM THE AG DEPARTMENT SHOWED A SLIGHTLY LARGER REDUCTION IN THE HERD THAN EXPECTED. HURT EXPECTS DEMAND WILL ALSO IMPROVE...AND HE SAYS THAT WILL HELP PRODUCERS EVEN MORE THAN REDUCED SUPPLY.
Dairy Supports: AS THE DAIRY INDUSTRY GATHERS IN WISCONSIN THIS WEEK FOR THE WORLD DAIRY EXPO, HOUSE AND SENATE NEGOTIATORS IN WASHINGTON HAVE STRUCK A DEAL ON DAIRY SUPPORTS. HOUSE AND SENATE CONFEREES HAVE PENCILED THREE-HUNDRED-AND-50 MILLION DOLLARS IN DAIRY SUPPORT AS PART OF THE AG APPROPRIATIONS BILL. ACCORDING TO OUR WASHINGTON STAFF WITH PRO FARMER, TWO-HUNDRED-90 MILLION WOULD BE IN DIRECT SUPPORT. THE OTHER 60-MILLION WOULD BE USED TO PURCHASE CHEESE AND OTHER DAIRY PRODUCTS FOR FEDERAL NUTRITION PROGRAMS.
World Dairy: MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AT THE 43RD ANNUAL WORLD DAIRY EXPO FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CLIMATE IN THE DAIRY INDUSTRY. THE EXPO DRAWS THOUSANDS OF VISITORS TO SEE THE LATEST TECHNOLOGY AND LEARN THE LATEST TRENDS IN DAIRY PRODUCTION. OUR PARTNERS AT DAIRY TODAY CAMPED-OUT AT THE EXPO ALL WEEK. THERE'S AN ABUNDANCE OF NEWS COVERAGE FROM THE SHOW ON DAIRYTODAY.COM.
Marketing Roundtable: Gregg Hunt from MF Global and Bob Utterback from Utterback Marketing join Al Pell at the Agribusiness Desk.
John’s World: THE HOGS AND PIGS REPORT ISSUED LAST WEEK WAS SLIGHTLY SURPRISING TO ME AT LEAST. THE REPORT SHOWED A DECLINE OF ABOUT 2 PERCENT IN HOG NUMBERS, BUT ONE EXPERT POINTED OUT THIS COULD STILL MEAN MORE PORK OUTPUT, AS THE REDUCTION IN THE BREEDING HERD WOULD ACTUALLY TAKE PRESSURE OFF PERSONNEL AND FACILITIES IN LARGE OPERATIONS, ALLOWING THEM TO FUNCTION MORE EFFICIENTLY, PRODUCING MORE OUTPUT. THE IMPLICATION SEEMS TO BE PRICES WILL REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL DEMAND RISES TO MEET AMPLE SUPPLIES. WITH THE SLUGGISH PACE OF OUR RECOVERY, THAT COULD TAKE SOME TIME. THIS POINTS TO EXPORTS AS THE GREAT HOPE FOR BETTER HOG PRICES. WE'RE ALL FOR EXPORTS, OF COURSE, BUT SOMEHOW MAKE ANOTHER CASE FOR IMPORTS. WE ALSO FORGET OUR TRADING PARTNERS HAVE THEIR OWN PRIORITIES AND OTHER TRADE ISSUES IMPACT OUR PRODUCTS. A PROBLEM WITH TIRES IS A PROBLEM FOR CHICKEN, FOR EXAMPLE. FREE TRADE IS TAKING SOME HITS FROM ALL SIDES LATELY. ANXIOUS WORKERS DON'T WANT TO LOSE JOBS. OTHERS WANT USE TRADE TO PUNISH COUNTRIES FAILING TO CURB EMISSIONS. TRADE SANCTIONS ARE ONE WAY WE TRY TO SOLVE DIPLOMATIC FAILURES LIKE IRAN. EVEN THE U-S CAN'T DICTATE WHICH ITEMS ARE COVERED BY FREE TRADE. PORK PRODUCERS SHOULD BE LOUDLY ADVOCATING FREE TRADE - PERIOD - SINCE THEY ARE BETTING THEIR FUTURES ON IT.
USFR-2nd half
John’s Hello: WITH FEWER QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE MAJOR CROPS THIS YEAR, MUCH OF THE ATTENTION RETURNS TO OUR HARD-PRESSED LIVESTOCK SECTOR. WE HAVE SOME NEWS ABOUT THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE SECTOR AND ALSO AN UNUSUAL SMALLER SEGMENT. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS ARE A STEP CLOSER TO ACTUAL CONSUMERS COMPARED TO GRAIN PRODUCTION. AS SUCH, THE SLOW RECOVERY TESTS THEM MORE IMMEDIATELY. MEAT, MILK AND EGGS ARE BOUGHT DAILY AND TRACK DISPOSABLE INCOME CLOSELY, SO HOW WELL THE WHOLE ECONOMY IS WORKING IS KEY. HERE'S HOPING THINGS IMPROVE FOR ALL OF US.
Climate Change: THE SENATE TOOK A FIRST STEP TOWARDS ENACTING CLIMATE CHANGE LEGISLATION. SENATORS BARBARA BOXER AND JOHN KERRY INTRODUCED THE LEGISLATION THIS WEEK. THE BILL IS BEING CRITICIZED BY REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS IN MANY FARM-STATES. THIS BILL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE HOUSE-VERSION IN CUTTING GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS. THE HOUSE VERSION CAPS IT AT 17-PERCENT BY THE YEAR 2020...BUT THE SENATE VERSION CAPS IT AT 20-PERCENT. AND BY THE YEAR 2050, IT WOULD CAP EMISSIONS AT 80-PERCENT! SOME FARM-STATE LAWMAKERS SAY IT DOES NOT INCLUDE PROVISIONS TO ENSURE FARMERS CAN EARN CREDITS FOR CARBON-STORAGE PRACTICES, LIKE REDUCED TILLAGE. THE HOUSE-APPROVED VERSION INCLUDES THAT INCENTIVE. NEBRASKA SENATOR AND FORMER AG SECRETARY MIKE JOHANNS CALLS IT AN "ASSAULT ON AGRICULTURE."
AGCO fines: A LEADER IN THE FARM EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY WILL BE PAYING-OUT MORE THAN 20-MILLION DOLLARS FOR ITS INVOLVEMENT IN AN "OIL FOR FOOD" SCHEME THROUGH THE UNITED NATIONS. THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE SAYS AGCO PAID MORE THAN A HALF-MILLION DOLLARS IN KICKBACKS TO THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT, AS THE COMPANY ATTEMPTED TO SELL FARM MACHINERY PURCHASED BY THE GOVERNMENT. THE PURCHASES TOOK PLACE PRIOR TO THE 2003 INVASION OF IRAQ. THE D-O-J SAYS AGCO WILL PAY A ONE-POINT-SIX MILLION DOLLAR FINE TO THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT. THE OTHER 18-MILLION WILL GO TO THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. UNDER THE AGREEMENT, CONSPIRACY CHARGES WILL BE DROPPED IN THREE YEARS IF THE COMPANY COOPERATES WITH AUTHORITIES. THE D-O-J SAYS CONTRACT PRICES WERE INFLATED BY AS MUCH AS 20-PERCENT BEFORE THEY WERE SUBMITTED TO THE UNITED NATIONS FOR APPROVAL.
Herd buyout: AN ORGANIZATION THAT BUYS-OUT DAIRY HERDS FROM FARMERS, IN AN EFFORT TO IMPROVE MILK PRICES FOR DAIRYMEN, IS STARTING ITS NEXT ROUND OF PURCHASES. COOPERATIVES WORKING TOGETHER ANNOUNCED ITS THIRD HERD RETIREMENT FOR THIS YEAR. PREVIOUS BUY-OUTS HELPED REMOVE TWO-HUNDRED-AND-26-THOUSAND COWS FROM PRODUCTION. WITH FEWER COWS MAKING MILK, THAT MEANS LESS SUPPLY...AND IDEALLY, BETTER PRICES FOR DAIRY FARMERS. THE MAXIMUM BID THAT C-W-T WILL PAY IS FIVE-DOLLARS-25 CENTS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT. THE PAYMENT IS BASED ON HOW MUCH THE COW PRODUCED THE PREVIOUS YEAR. THE DEADLINE TO REGISTER IS OCTOBER 15TH.
World Dairy Expo: THE NATION'S BIGGEST DAIRY GATHERING WAS HELD THIS WEEK IN MADISON, WISCONSIN. LARGE CROWDS FILLED THE EXHIBITION HALLS FOR THE 2009 WORLD DAIRY EXPO. WITH DAIRY PRODUCERS EARNING ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THEY MADE A YEAR AGO, THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN WAS ON THE MIND OF MANY ATTENDEES. SHOW ORGANIZERS SAY WITH THE TROUBLE FACING THE DAIRY INDUSTRY, THE EXPO IS A GOOD PLACE TO LEARN NEW PRODUCTION TECHNIQUES TO LOWER COSTS.
Alligator Farms: THE DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY IS AFFECTING ALLIGATOR FARMERS WHICH RAISE GATORS FOR THEIR SKINS. THE SKINS ARE USED TO MAKE BOOTS AND HAND-BAGS, BUT LUXURY ALLIGATOR PRODUCTS ARE NOT SELLING THIS YEAR. THE PRICES DROPPED FROM 45-DOLLARS A FOOT TO TEN-DOLLARS A FOOT. AT THE VERMILION GATOR FARM IN LOUISIANA, WORKERS ARE BUSY PROCESSING THE SKINS OF THE GATORS ALREADY RAISED. BUT THE GROWER SAYS HE DID NOT COLLECT ANY EGGS THIS YEAR, SO HE WON'T HAVE A CROP NEXT YEAR. THE WILD ALLIGATOR SEASON IS NOW UNDERWAY IN LOUISIANA, BUT EXPERTS FROM THE L-S-U AGCENTER EXPECT FEW HUNTERS WILL HARVEST THEM. THAT COULD CAUSE OTHER PROBLEMS. L-S-U SAYS THE MORE ALLIGATORS YOU HAVE, THE MORE LIKELY THEY ARE TO GET INTO PEOPLE'S BACKYARDS.
Spirit of the Heartland: Dog trainer GUIDE DOGS CAN MAKE LIFE EASIER FOR THE VISUALLY IMPAIRED... GUIDING THEM THROUGH BUSY STREETS AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATIONS. BUT SOMEONE MUST TEACH THESE AMAZING ANIMALS BEFORE THAN CAN SERVE AN OWNER...AND THAT'S WHERE THE 4-H COMES IN. IN THIS REPORT FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE, CHUCK DENNEY INTRODUCES US TO HANNAH AND SAGE...A PARTNERSHIP THAT HAS REALLY PAYED OFF. "SOUTH-EASTERN GUIDE DOGS" HAS ABOUT A DOZEN VOLUNTEER TRAINERS IN TENNESSEE. TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS ORGANIZATION, HEAD ONLINE TO "GUIDEDOGS.ORG".
RURAL HEALTHCARE: WHILE MOST FARM GROUPS ARE NOT LOBBYING ON THE FRONT LINES, THEY STILL WANT TO MAKE SURE THEY HAVE INPUT AS HEALTH CARE REFORM GOES FORWARD. BEING SELF-EMPLOYED, FARMERS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT PLANS TO REFORM THE SYSTEM. REGIONAL REPORTER MICHELLE ROOK TALKED TO LAWMAKERS AND FARMERS TO FIND OUT WHAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE IN A COMPREHENSIVE PACKAGE. DEMOCRATIC LEADERS WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A HEALTH CARE REFORM PLAN DONE BY THE END OF THE YEAR. REPUBLICAN HAVE COMPLAINED THE DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO FORCE A BILL THROUGH RIGHT NOW INSTEAD OF DOING IT RIGHT AND IN A BIPARTISAN FASHION.
TRACTOR TALES: WELCOME BACK...WE HEAD TO OHIO THIS WEEK FOR TRACTOR TALES TO CHECK OUT AN ALLIS CHALMERS TRACTOR OWNED BY A VERY TALENTED COLLECTOR. AS YOU'LL SEE, THIS ORANGE BEAUTY STILL GETS A GOOD WORKOUT.
Church Salute: LET'S HEAD TO NEBRASKA AND THE COLERIDGE IMMANUEL LUTHERAN CHURCH FOR OUR FIRST COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE THIS WEEK. THEY CELEBRATED THEIR 125TH ANNIVERSARY LAST MONTH. THE FIRST CHURCH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TOWN, BUT IN 1926, A NEW CHURCH AND PARSONAGE WERE BUILT IN COLERIDGE. ABOUT THAT TIME SERVICES BEGAN IN ENGLISH AS WELL AS GERMAN. MANY IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AND MULTIPLE MINISTRIES INVOLVE THE WHOLE CONGREGATION. OUR THANKS TO SHIRLEY POPPENHOUSEN. OUR SECOND CHURCH IS BUCK'S GROVE UNITED METHODIST CHURCH LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF HOLTON, KANSAS. CIRCUIT RIDERS BEGAN SERVICES IN THE LATE 1860'S, AND A CHURCH COMPLETED IN 1880. AS CHURCH HISTORIAN BETTY BERNRITTER STATES IT: "THE CHURCH WAS BUILT FOR THE WORSHIP OF GOD AND TO BE ORGANIZED BY ANYONE WHO WISHED TO - HENCE IT BECAME A METHODIST CHURCH." SOUNDS LIKE MY METHODIST CHURCH.
USFR Mailbag: TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAIL BAG... CANADIAN FARMER ALAN DE VOS SENDS THIS NOTE: "I HAVE BECOME A VERY FAITHFUL VIEWER OF BOTH THE SHOWS SINCE THERE IS NOTHING LIKE THIS IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO ANYMORE. SINCE OUR PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT DOESN'T KNOW THAT THERE IS LIFE OUTSIDE OF TORONTO ... CUT BACKS ALL AROUND HAVE MADE AG SHOWS LIKE YOURS OBSOLETE IN ONTARIO. ...MOST OF THE STUFF THAT GOES ON IN THIS PROVINCE BASICALLY IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS SOUTH OF THE BORDER." WE'RE GLAD YOU ENJOY THE SHOWS, ALAN, AND THANKS FOR WRITING. TV IS A DIFFERENT INDUSTRY IN CANADA AS I HAVE FOUND OUT WHEN I VISITED WITH CANADIAN PRODUCERS. WHILE THERE ARE POWERFUL MARKET TIES BETWEEN OUR COUNTRIES, IN MANY WAYS, CANADA IS POISED TO EMERGE FROM THE GLOBAL SLOWDOWN EARLIER THAN THE U-S, I THINK. BEING BOTH AN ENERGY AND FERTILIZER SUPPLIER IS A GOOD POSITION TO BE IN. CANADA'S MORE TIGHTLY REGULATED BANKS FARED BETTER AS WELL. AND, OF COURSE, CANADA IS NOT RACKED BY A TUMULTUOUS HEALTH CARE DEBATE. U-S CITIZENS TOO OFTEN FORGET WHEN WE RAIL ABOUT FOREIGN OIL SUPPLIERS WE ARE TALKING MORE ABOUT OUR NEIGHBOR THAN SAUDI ARABIA. AS THE TAR SANDS DEVELOP CANADA COULD ASSUME AN EVEN LARGER ROLE. BUT THE LARGEST BENEFIT IS THE ONE YOU MENTION: A GOOD NEIGHBOR POPULATED WITH FOLKS VERY MUCH LIKE US.
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