Spring Weather, Drought Concerns and Price Impact Northern Plains Planting Decisions

Last year at this time farmers in the Northern Plains had several feet of snow in their backyard causing concerns about planting delays.  However, it has been a relatively open and mild winter in the Dakotas and Minnesota.  That could mean an early planting season but is also raising drought concerns and adding some questions about the planting mix for 2024.  

Preparations are already underway for the planting season at the Grotte farm in the Red River Valley of North Dakota and with the lack of snowfall planting could come early. 

Andrew Grotte, farms near Thompson, North Dakota and says, "If we don't have any more snow, and with the warmer temperatures, it could be in April.  I think corn could be earlier than normal."

And that’s also true for other parts of the state according to Randy Martinson, with Martinson Ag, "There were guys that were putting anhydrous fertilizer down a week ago when that warm spell came so it does look like the first year in many years we could be in the field in April."  

But does the forecast support an early spring planting season in the Northern Plains? The director of the NDAWN or the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network, shared his outlook with farmers at the CHS Ag Industry Day in Grand Forks.  

Daryl Ritchison, says, "I think we'll be early in comparison to last year is almost "a guarantee" but if we got a weird rain system or even a little snow in the middle of April which isn’t unusual for us you know that would set people back a little bit but the positive because we’re not starting with anything, anything we get would probably either melt or evaporate pretty quickly so the odds favor most areas getting in much earlier than last year."  

If that holds true, there will be a mad rush for inputs like fertilizer.  A lot of product was applied last fall which helps, but retailers say it will be tight.

Chris Kolstoe, Agronomy Department Manager with CHS Ag Services says, "We certainly have a potential for a challenge going forward.  You know I think our system will be full as we start the spring, and we had a really good fall with a lot of tons on the ground but still getting those resupplied tons definitely can be impacted."

Sherry Koch, Sr. Technical Sales Mgr. for the Upper Midwest, for Mosaic adds, "The potash we don’t foresee any supplies, the biggest challenge will be the logistics and getting up the river.  And so on the phosphate side on the other hand we do anticipate it will be tight for spring."

With the open and warm winter there are also some farmers worried about drought in 2024. 

Andrew Grotte says, "We got less moisture throughout the winter than average, and we went into the winter pretty dry as well.  The subsoil moisture is, is really low right now. We haven't had enough moisture in the last couple of years to build that up."  

DuWayne Bosse, with Bolt Marketing says, "Winters like this remind them of 2012, 1988, 1976, so they are a little bit concerned about drought."

But is it a valid concern this early in the season? 

Ritchison says November through March are five months when the average precipitation is the same as it is in June.  "So, winters are supposed to be dry and so at the moment there’s no concern.  I’m forecasting it to turn dry so I understand there probably will be concern don’t get me wrong but as of right now most areas aren’t doing all that bad."

And of course all this plus grain prices are playing into farmers planting decisions in the region.   For the Grotte’s they’ve taken wheat out of their rotation, added corn, soybeans and edible beans.

Collin Grotte, says, "We got into edible beans a few years back and it's just good to have a variety of crops with the way commodity prices are headed it's not good, not good to have everything in one category."

Martinson says many of the farmers he works with in North Dakota are looking at acre shifts.  "I think we’re going to see more beans in the whole state, less sunflowers, more canola, more dry edible beans, less barley and I think wheat’s going to suffer.  I mean a lot of guys are pulling wheat out of their rotation because of the poor performance the market’s having."

 Meanwhile Allison Thompson with The Money Farm is working with many producers in North Dakota and Minnesota that are leaning towards more corn but at the expense of beans despite a better margin for that crop.  "The last couple of years we’ve had really good yields, surprisingly good yields for a lot of guys.  So, it’s not a surprise they’re leaning towards corn at this point verses soybeans.  I think a lot of people in this neck of the woods definitely feel like we’re topped out on soybeans as far as yields."

And acreage shifts are mostly likely to come in the fringe areas which is generally the Northern Plains, but according to DuWayne Bosse weather could still change some decisions.   

"If we have an early spring farmers like to plant corn and that ends up being that one extra quarter of corn.  Well that one extra quarter of corn could mean no shift at all and really corn can’t handle that it needs to give up some acres and that would be a very tight situation for soybeans so to me soybeans have to buy some acres here moving forward."

So as we always say, Mother Nature will have the final say.