AgDay TV Markets Now: Don Roose, U.S. Commodities says soybeans close higher as Conab production cuts trump WASDE data. So is the market trying to bottom?
USDA's January reports were negative for row crops with higher corn and soybean yields and production. Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net is hopeful the markets have the most bearish news now factored into prices.
March corn hit a new contract low of $4.41 on Friday. Will corn see more pressure trying to price in extra bushels? March soybeans also hit a low of $12.06. Will $12 support hold without a drop in Brazil production?
The USDA reports were bullish for corn with lower-than-expected quarterly stocks, but bearish for soybeans. Wheat numbers were also bearish with higher-than-expected production.
Following the bearish report on Wednesday, grain markets closed higher for the week, which, according to Jerry Gulke, signals the market might believe there is more downside to yield.
After the June report, traders prepared for a “new” trading environment with “burdensome” corn supplies and “pipeline” soybean supplies. Then came the anticlimactic July report.
The biggest surprises included a 4-bu. reduction in corn yield and soybean ending stocks came in at 300 million bushels, which is 100 million bushels higher than trade estimates.
USDA's June Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports resulted in a bullish surprise for soybeans and bearish news for corn. In an already volatile grain market, the supply situation is problematic.
USDA's June 30 Acreage report is generally a big market mover, but early trade estimates show little change from March, while quarterly stocks estimates indicate tighter supplies than 2022.
A bearish reset of the corn and soybean markets is underway as they transition from tight drought-stricken old crop supplies to record production levels in 2023-24.
The May WASDE will provide the first new crop estimates of the growing season and this could be a volatile report with the transition from tight old crop stocks to much larger supplies of corn and soybeans.
Ahead of the report, analysts expected a drop in corn yield, but not soybean yield — and the market responded quickly, says Bill Biedermann, AgMarket.Net co-founder.
Soybean acres are estimated at 88.3 million, up 1% from last year. This is down from March’s estimate of 90.955 million and below the pre-report trade average of 90.446 million.
USDA adjusted corn ending stocks lower in its April WASDE report, based on increased exports and ethanol, but Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing says now it’s just a matter of if the record commitments can ship.
With just eight days left in EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler’s term, RFA president and CEO Geoff Cooper weighs in on worst-case scenarios and his optimism about the new administration.
USDA’S final crop production report of the year made some historic adjustments, including tighter soybean stocks. As a result, soybeans shot 60 cents higher in a matter of minutes, and corn traded up the limit.
This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced corn used for ethanol, smaller feed and residual use and exports, and decreased ending stocks.
Final 2020 crop numbers from USDA put the overall corn crop at 14.2 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.14 billion bushels, both below trade expectations.
USDA estimated that U.S. growers will plant 97 million acres of corn this spring, an 8% increase over 2019, but analysts say recent sharp declines in ethanol production make it doubtful that number will hold true.
With markets in a pivotal paradigm, farmers and traders alike are waiting in anticipation for USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report to see if it can provide any bullish news.
With markets in a pivotal paradigm, farmers and traders alike are waiting in anticipation for USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report to see if it can provide any bullish news.
Despite a soybean carryover number lower than market expectations in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) from USDA, market reaction was muted with beans only up a quarter cent on the day.